Assigned: Mon. 9/25
Read: Chapter 3 and sections 1-3 of Chapter 4 (to p. 65).
Problems: 1-6 p.33, 1-2 p.38.
Journal: Assuming there are 1000 medals awarded at the Olympics, give a model for the number of medals you think the U.S. will win. Your model should include a histogram as well as a clear and detailed agument for why you think the model will be accurate. Based on your model, what is the expected number of medals that the U.S. will win?
Assigned: Wed. 9/27
Read: The section of Andrew Bernard's paper (pages 1-9) that was handed out in class.
Problems: 1-6 p.61, 1-4 p.65
Journal: After reading Bernard's paper, critically analyze some aspect you
find interesting or relevant to the discussion in class. In particular, we were considering factors which could improve a simple Olympic model, and how we should weight them.
NOTE: Journals will be collected this Friday.
Assigned: Fri. 9/29
Read: The article by Robert Matthews handed out in class.
Journal: When the final medal results come in, compare Bernard's results with the actual results. Did he make a good prediction? On what factors are you basing your judgement? (See below for Bernard's predictions.)
Quiz Monday on the homework from the week.
Bernard's Predictions
| Australia | 52 |
| Belarus | 12 |
| Belgium | 7 |
| Brazil | 17 |
| Bulgaria | 10 |
| Canada | 23 |
| China | 49 |
| Cuba | 20 |
| Czech Republic | 9 |
| Denmark | 7 |
| France | 38 |
| Germany | 63 |
| Greece | 8 |
| Hungary | 18 |
| Italy | 35 |
| Jamaica | 1 |
| Japan | 19 |
| Kazakhstan | 8 |
| Kenya | 5 |
| Netherlands | 19 |
| New Zealand | 5 |
| Nigeria | 5 |
| North Korea | 3 |
| Norway | 7 |
| Poland | 16 |
| Romania | 17 |
| Russia | 59 |
| South Africa | 6 |
| South Korea | 27 |
| Spain | 18 |
| Sweden | 9 |
| Switzerland | 8 |
| Turkey | 7 |
| UK | 18 |
| Ukraine | 21 |
| US | 97 |