VACCINES:
An Introduction to Risk
Newton Copp
Joint Science Department
The Claremont Colleges
Decisions about vaccines are not easy to make. It is not a matter of
finding out simply whether a vaccine does or does not work. We live in a
probabilistic world in which all vaccines carry degrees of risk and
benefit. Our task is to determine as precisely and accurately as
possible what these various degrees are and how they add up to a
decision.
Three case studies of diseases and their vaccines are described in this
monograph. Smallpox, swine flu, and whooping cough have presented
different sorts of problems for people trying to decide whether to be
vaccinated or take their chances with the disease. The historical
context in which these case studies are presented suggests how our
current notions of risk and medical science developed
The mathematics is all elementary probability. There are nine problems,
six of which are mathematical in nature.