## Math 5 Log

Week 1:

Our first assignment is all about our Assumptions and is due Friday October 4. Read the two articles about coincidence handed out in class. Also read Chapter 7 of the text book and take the self-test at the end of the chapter.

Week 2:

Our first assignment assignment is due this Friday, October 4. On Monday October 7 we will have our first quiz. The quiz will consist of 2 or 3 slightly modified problems form either the the completion questions or the multiple choice questions 1-18 from chapter 7 of our text. Please read chapter 8 of the text before Monday as well to familiarize yourself with next batch of concepts that we will encounter ( Warning: chapter 8 is much shorter than chapter 7 and we may have a quiz based on the material in chapter 8 as soon as Friday October 11.) Also please go to the gallup and find and read their explanation of how polls are conducted. Also this is a very nice account of Eric McMillan's experience with the birthday problem and coincidences (thanks Barbara!).

Week 3:

Our second individual project explores issues involved in conducting random surveys. You will be asked to think about how to design a method that will maximize the randomness of the people you poll, and compute the margin of error built in to your poll. Here is the description of the second project. It is due at the start of class on Friday, October 18. (Note: a first draft is not mandatory for this project, although we will be happy to look at any rough drafts handed in before Wednesday, Oct. 16.) There will be a quiz on Chapter 8 of the text on Monday Oct. 14. The quiz will consist of three slightly modified questions from chapter 8 chosen from the true false questions, the completion questions or the following multiple-choice questions: 1-4,11-16 and 22-24. As we did last week, at X-session we will answer any questions you may have about chapter 8.

Week 4:

Nancy Brand has kindly allowed us to post the slides from last Friday's lecture on an OVERVIEW of COLLEGE STUDENT DRINKING. In particular, you can explore the section on statistical inference. Recall our second individual project is due this Friday. Please read chapters 9 and 10 on the normal curve and the central limit theorem. There will be a quiz on Friday October 25 that will include slightly modified problems selected from 1-20 of the Multiple-Choice Questions from chapter 9 and 10-29 of the Multiple-Choice Questions from chapter 10. We will hold a question and answer session concerning these problems during X-session on Thursday October 24. On Friday we began thinking about roulette . Here is part of a dialog between professor Leibon and gaming expert R. D. Ellison .

Week 5:

On Monday we discussed a little bit about roulette systems and the following (removed by next class) editorial , article 1 , and article 2 . On Friday we handed out the instructions regarding the third project.

Week 6:

Read chapters 11 and 12. There will be quiz next Monday (November 4th) that covers the multiple-choice questions 41-52 of chapter 12. At X-session THIS WEEK we will discuss these problems. These problems concern testing a hypothesis , as we did with our cookie data on Monday. We explored the role of the central limit theorem in utilizing this hypothesis test by constructing data with a random number generator. While this is somewhat convincing, one might try and use a Lava Lamp or some other real random number producing device to produce REAL random numbers. At this random web you can down load (or have produced right in front of your eyes!) loads of random data. Here is an example of 100,000 fair "head/tail" trials taken from this sight. With this actual data we can witness the central limit theorem, for real! (A special thanks goes to Peter Kostelec for helping me organize this data. In fact (thanks to Peter) I have 8,388,608 REAL head tails experiments available in a format that I can really use. If any one needs "some" data for their chance project, just ask!)

Week 7:

Read chapters 14 and chapter 5. There will be quiz next Friday (November 15 th) that covers the multiple-choice questions of chapter 14. Your third individual project is due this Friday at the beginning of lecture. Notice, we have a guest speaker during lecture this Friday and next Monday. Attendance at these lectures is required. In class we have been looking at the chi-squared test and have experimentally tested its validity .

Week 8:

We have a guest speaker during lecture this Monday and on Thursday evening (November 14, 7:00 P.M., Filene auditorium, Moore Hall) . Attendance at these lectures is required. Recall there is a quiz on the chi-squared test this Friday (this Thursday's X-session will be a chi-squared question and answer period). In class, we ran a hypothesis test based upon "human constructed" coin flips and real ones. We constructed 35 examples of such data and ran a simple test in order to distinguish the two possibilities. This test correctly distinguished 32 of the 35 pieces example data. The test was devised based on the following (experimentally determined) histogram of maximum streak lengths. On Wednesday, we will discuss this situation in detail.

Week 9+