Mad Cow: Worst Case Scenario

Remember we want a worst case scenario. If anything, the real chance should be smaller than what we quote. Hence, we should look at how our assumptions affect our estimate. I will list them:

Serving=1/N pounds, with N=2

Years of Epidemic=M years, with M=5

Disease inducing portions=K, with K =140.

In this language, our estimate is K/((M)(N)(2)(10^9)). Hence K should be a likely overestimate, N should be a likely underestimate, and M should be a likely underestimate. Looking back at our assumptions, maybe we should assume a really big portion size (like a pound) and assume that the deaths that will occur from a diseased-induced-serving are twice what have been reported. With these assumptions, we have that the chance is ((2)(140))/((5)(1)(2)(10^9)) =.75 *10^7. This estimate most certainly is truly a worst case scenario.