Abnormal Activity: Prediction of Extreme Events in High-dimensional Systems

Mohammad Farazmand

Mathematics, MIT.

A plethora of natural and engineering systems exhibit spontaneous intermittent behavior manifested through sporadic bursts in the time series of their observables. Examples of such rare extreme events include unusually large ocean waves (commonly referred to as rogue waves) and shocks waves in power grids. Due to their undesirable impact on the system or the surrounding environment, the real-time prediction and mitigation of the extreme events is of utmost importance. In this talk, I discuss the recent advances in the prediction of extreme events in a nonlinear dynamical systems framework. In particular, I introduce a variational framework that enables the data-driven, short-term prediction of the extreme events in systems with many degrees of freedom. I show the application of this method on two examples: the first example is the prediction of ocean rogue waves and the second example is the intermittent energy dissipation bursts in turbulent fluid flows.

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